Final Game Advice

“In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.”  In the land of the inept quarterbacks, Jon Kitna is king.  

According to the conventional wisdom, fantasy football playoffs are fundamentally about duels between the best of the best.  However, the playoffs are also a war of attrition.  These past few weeks, injuries have devastated powerhouse playoff teams.  Early round exits and upset victories are now commonplace.  Remember Aaron Rodgers, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, and Terrell Owens.  These players destroyed your fantasy football team during the regular season.  But due to injury, they have effectively rolled over in the playoffs, and ended their owners hopes of fantasy glory. 

The case of Adrian Peterson was especially cruel.  Imagine the eager Adrian Peterson owners down by a few fantasy points after Sunday’s games.  With word the Brett Farve was out, Minnesota was primed to rely heavily on the run.  Surely, Peterson would earn those few points you needed to defeat your opponent and advance to the next round.  But alas, word came down- seemingly out of nowhere- that Peterson was a last minute scratch.  To make matters worse, the Vikings played on Monday night.  Most Peterson owners were left with no alternatives.  Watching the Vikings-Bears game felt like jumping into a deflated life raft.  Teams with Peterson and other superstars suffered brutal defeats at the hands of teams with players like Eli Manning, Mike Tolbert, Brian Westbrook, LeGarrette Blount, and even Joe Webb.

For those of you lucky enough to still be playing in your fantasy league, you are most likely in your last week of competition.  Perhaps you are playing for the Championship.  Perhaps you are playing in a third place game.  In either event, your team management strategy now comes down to two questions.  Who do I have on my team?  Who does my opponent have on his or her team?  Your whole season has come down to one single game.  It no longer matters who you have on your bench.  The time for patience is over.

Of course, as with any game, you want to play the players most likely to earn you the most fantasy points.  In the playoffs, you need to be careful about dropping a player that your opponent will likely pick up.  Like the rest of the fantasy world, you are probably excited about the prospect of picking up Joe Webb and earning quarterback points in your wide receiver slot.  Suppose your starting quarterback is Tom Brady, while Matt Ryan rides your bench.  If your opponent has Drew Brees or Philip Rivers, feel free to drop Ryan and pick up Webb.  However, your strategy changes if your opponent picked up Tim Tebow and Shaun Hill after losing Aaron Rodgers.  At this point, it is unclear whether Rodgers will start this weekend.  If Rodgers does not start, wouldn’t you rather face Hill or Tebow than Matt Ryan?       

Now suppose your opponent has Roddy White, Andre Johnson, and Reggie Wayne as his or her wide receivers.  In most leagues, you can start no more than 3 wide receivers.  White, Johnson, and Wayne are the best receivers in the game.  What does this mean for you?  If you drop any of your wide receivers, your opponent should not and will not pick him up.  If you have DeSean Jackson and Calvin Johnson, feel free to drop Jeremy Maclin, Santana Moss, or Brandon Marshall in order to pick up Joe Webb, Ryan Torain, or even the Dallas Cowboys’ Defense.  Although Moss, Maclin, and Marshall are good receivers, they are of no value to you on your bench.  Once you have determined that neither you nor your opponent will be starting these players, they are instantly on the chopping block.           

Because this will probably be the last game of your season, you must be willing to drop an above-average bench player (e.g., Santana Moss) in order to gain whatever marginal advantage you can.  Conversely, you must be willing to hold onto an average or below average bench player (e.g., Matt Ryan) if your opponent’s weakest starter is worse than your weakest bench player.  

-By Kevin Hammon