Go With The Guys Who Got You There

“Go with the guys who got you there” is a common fantasy football adage. It may have derived from Benjamin Franklin’s famous observation that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I adhere to this adage as I tend to be cautious and risk-averse. When an important game is in the balance, it is better to play your consistent performer (i.e., your bird in hand) instead of a high-risk potential star (i.e., your bird in the bush).

The fantasy football playoffs start next weekend in most formats. Perhaps you are on the cusp of the playoffs in your league. If that is the case, then this week is essentially a playoff game for you as your team is probably in a must-win situation. In any event, now is the time to start thinking about who you will play in the upcoming critical games.

I prioritize the “go-to” receivers and running backs over the potential break-out stars. Of course, risk is an inherent part of fantasy football. LeGarette Blount, Maurice Morris, Mike Goodson, Jacoby Ford, and Deon Branch have each shown flashes of brilliance over the past few weeks. These players are “hot adds,” literally jumping off the waiver wires. Generally, the temptation is to ride the hot hand. But in these close must-win match-ups, you should rely on your fantasy football workhorses who have earned you the privilege of remaining competitive in December.

Imagine your fantasy team is down by 10 points. Your season depends upon the performance of one single player. Do you really want your whole season to come down to Mike Goodson? Sure, he had fantastic fantasy games against Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Cleveland, exceeding 100 yards in each of those games. But now there is word that his starting job is in jeopardy as Jonathan Stewart more than doubled Goodson’s yards per carry last weekend. With my season on the line, I would much rather rely on a consistent starter like Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, or even Cedric Benson. These three backs are at least guaranteed an opportunity to score 10 fantasy points.

Last year, the fantasy world was enthralled with Arian Foster after he supposedly inherited the starting running back job from Steve Slaton and his gang of struggling Houston running backs. The experts told you that Foster was a must add after he displayed impressive strength and vision against Seattle. In 2009’s week 14, Arian Foster faced a miserable St. Louis run defense. This was to be Foster’s coming out party— in the midst of the fantasy playoffs no less. But something went terribly wrong. Foster finished with two carries for seven yards, a reception for 13 yards, and a lost fumble. In most leagues, Foster scored negative fantasy points during 2009’s week 14.

So what happened? Did Foster wind up with a season ending injury? No. Did St. Louis suddenly turn into the Pittsburgh Steelers? No. Instead the Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak pulled Arian Foster out of the game after he fumbled the ball. The Texans were fed up with Steve Slaton’s heart-wrenching fumbles. Kubiak pulled Foster to emphasize that the Texans would no longer tolerate fumbles. This was of course before Arian Foster was the league’s leading rusher, and overall super star that he is today. While the 2009 fantasy world had jumped on his bandwagon (with good reason), Foster was just another fill-in running back for last year’s Texans.

During the fantasy football playoffs, you cannot afford to gamble on a player who may be pulled simply because the coach wants to make a point. If nothing else, your reliable starters have earned the trust of their coaches. Their NFL teams count on them to make plays. Your fantasy team has counted on them to earn points, and you should continue to count on them throughout the fantasy football playoffs.

-By Kevin Hammon