Kickers and Defenses: Do They Matter?

The first guy to draft a kicker or defense is typically the schmuck of the league. Judgment and shame will rain down on whoever selects Kaeding or the Jets Defense in the 9th Round. Conventional wisdom commands savvy drafters to wait until the absolute last 2 rounds to grab their meaningless Kicker and Defense. But should they?

We subscribe to the theory of Value Based Drafting, in which the value of a player is determined by their relative value to other players started at that position. Thus, a player's VBD score is the difference between his points and the worst starter at that position. The #1 Defense (SF) scored 47 more points than the #12 Defense (CIN). The #1 Kicker (Kaeding) scored 42 more points than the #12 Kicker (Lindell). That means that by year's end, SF and Kaeding had about the same value and should have been drafted around Cedric Benson, Deangelo Williams, Derrick Mason, Santonio Holmes, Phil Rivers, or Ben Roethlisberger. But that is based on the theory that you should draft Benson and Kaeding at the same point because if you draft Benson, you can pick up the best Kicker on the waiver wire and he'll be approximately equal to the worst starting Kicker, which is probably true. But if you draft Kaeding at that point, you cannot pick up the best RB off the waiver wire and think he will be approximately equal to the worst starting RB. This is because in most leagues, the 13th best Kicker is a Free Agent but the 31st best RB is owned. And so are the next 2 or 3 dozen RBs. But theoretically, the values of Benson and Kaeding are equal if you could forecast accurate player projections such that your first 9 picks would be your starting roster each week and your bench would be meaningless.

The other issue of course, is that you can never predict exactly how the players will turn out. If you knew last year that SF would score 47 more points than the worst starting defense and that Benson would score about 47 more points than the worst starting RB, then you may draft them at the same point. But of course, you didn't know that. And neither did I.  If you averaged 10 of the top Fantasy sites and drafted your Kickers and Defenses, then you would likely be happy with your Kicker, but not your Defense. That's because only 3 of the top 10 drafted Defenses finished in the top 10 in points at the end of the year (NYJ, PHI, BAL), while 6 of the top 10 drafted Kickers finished in the top 10 in points at the end of the year (Gostkowski, Bironas, Akers, Kaeding, Longwell, Crosby). Moreover, of the predraft consensus #1 fantasy Defenses of the past 5 years, only 1 finished in the top 10 defenses by the end of the year ('06 Bears). This may be because Kickers are less about their talent and more about their opportunities. We can safely bet that New England and New Orleans will have solid offenses in which most drives will end in a Field Goal or a Point After. A fantasy defense can sink or swim based on the defensive coordinator, the schedule of opponents, or the success of a single cornerback or linebacker.

Defenses are probably also the most matchup-sensitive spot on your roster. Thus, it's easier to pickup whichever Def is playing Oakland, Detroit, or St. Louis than it is to have a rotating Kicker spot.

Although Kickers and Defenses get no love from Fantasy gurus (many sites don't even rank them), they certainly can make a difference. And IF you feel confident in your projections for how they'll perform, it may make sense to draft a Kicker or Defense much earlier than the last 2 rounds. After studying the numbers, you may be inclined to take a top 3 kicker (Gostkowski, Kaeding, or Longwell) in the 13th or 14th round, and then pickup the best available Defense in the very last round and plan on rotating based on matchups or being the first to pickup the breakout fantasy Defense (NO and SF of '09). Either way, I've always monitored the free agent Kickers and Defs because so few others do.  The completion of Week 3 is typically a fair point to gauge the success of Kickers and Defs, so if mine is a total dud, I always check if the #1 Kicker or Def at that point is a free agent, and then I'll gladly make the switch. Other managers will ask you, "Why are you wasting your time making free agent pickups for KICKERS?!?" They will quiet down when you walk away with the championship.